For all you mathematically inclined pickers. If it helps you win the $, I want a cut :)
NCAA seed stats
The NCAA tournament field went to 64 teams in 1985, (the year Villanova won). Since then these are the records of the seeds in the first rounds:
1 vs 16 68-0 1.000%
2 vs 15 64-4 .941% (SU in '91, Arizona in '93 and South Carolina in '97, Iowa State last year)
3 vs 14 54-14 .794%
4 vs 13 54-14 .794%
5 vs 12 47-21 .691%
6 vs 11 47-21 .691%
7 vs 10 40-28 .588%
8 vs 9 29-39 .426%
If you divide the latter column by 17, you should pick one 14, one 13, one 12 and one 11 to win and two 10s and 9s. That's 8 upsets in the first round, the average over the years. You can't always go with the averages, however. Last year there were 13, the highest ever. Two years ago there was the lowest ever, only 3 with all the 8's beating all the 9's. The year before was tied for the highest ever, with 13 first round upsets. All the 9's beat all the 8's, each of the last two years. In 17 years, there have been between 7 and 9 upsets 10 times.
If you score well in the first round, you will usually contend the rest of the way because you will have the most teams still alive. Then the question becomes: Who's most likely to make the final four? According to the seeds, there have been:
30 #1 seeds
14 #2 seeds
8 #3 seeds
7 #4 seeds
2 #5 seeds
3 #6 seeds
0 #7 seeds
3 #8 seeds
0 #9 or 10 seeds
1 #11 seed
0 #12, 13, 14 , 15 or 16 seeds.
The chances of a team seeded less than #4 making the final four, (based on a percentage of who made it) 13%, (only 9 of 68). The national champions have included:
10#1 seeds
3 #2 seeds
1 #3 seed
1 #4 seed
0 #5 seeds (there's a first time for everything :))
1 #6 seed (Kansas '88)
0 #7 seeds
1 #8 seed (Villanova '85)
0 below that. (I don't think the Alcorn-Siena game is a real big deal).
Basically, if you are picking less than a #2 seed to go all the way, you are going out on a limb. But you might just be right.
First Round Upsets
How often do they lead to second round victories? In the 16 years since the field reached 64 teams, there have been the following number of first round upsets, with the following results in later rounds:
16 seeds have never won a game.
15 seeds have won 4 times. All lost by double figures in the next round.
14 seeds have won 14 first round games, 2 second round games and one "sweet 16" game.
13 seeds have won 14 first round games, 3 second round games and none in the sweet 16.
12 seeds have won 21 first round games and 11 second round games. They have won one sweet 16 game.
11 seeds have won 20 first round games and 9 second round games. They have won 4 sweet 16 games. They made it to the final four once.
10 seeds have won 24 first round games and 12 in the second round. They have won 8 sweet 16 games but never made it to the final four.
9 seeds have won 39 first round games. All it has gotten them is 39 dates with #1 seeds. They have won exactly two of those and one game in the sweet 16. You definitely don't want to be a #9 seed.
If you go with percentages, pick 2 nine seeds to upset eight seeds but that's as far as they go. Also pick two 10 seeds to win in the first round. Give one of the winners a trip to the sweet 16 and project one win there. They will lose in the elite 8. Pick one each of the 11, 12, 13 and 14 seeds to win and have the 11 and 12 seeds get to the sweet 16. They will stop there. For the rest, you're on your own. |
