Spent a good part of the afternoon surfing this thread from its inception. Reviewed a lot of the discussion between Gregg Powers and Tero, as well as the uncertainty every novice to Q felt back back then.
A really interesting exercise to try to get some historical perspective on what the years since 1996 have brought to us. First, the ERICY litigation and whether Q really had blocking patents in CDMA, then the difficulties with the handphones, then whether Q had IPR in UMTS, even saw some of the old discredited Frezza stuff and the old WSJ article, "Jacobs Patter", by some journalistic nincompoop who didn't know crap from Shinola.
Saw and read posts from the old timers, some who don't post anymore, like JMD, Ramsey Su, engineer, Mq, Pierre, Gregg Powers, JGoren, etc., and forgive me if I didn't mention you and you deserved it, there are just too many and my memory ain't what it used to be.
I was looking for a common thread on which to try to make some decent predictions as to what the future holds. This is what I came up with:
1.- The secret to Q's success has been and will be its association with good people, starting with Dr. J. and Dr. Viterbi all the way down to the nameless folks who make it all possible.
It seems that Dr. J. has a tremendous capacity to inspire the best to do their best. The Q seems to have lots of very special esprit de corps, and, if I read things correctly, Dr. J. is largely responsible for it. How the company will respond to his imminent retirement is probably the biggest question mark in its future. Having his sons in key positions I think will be beneficial--they will surely not want to be part of the dismantling of the old man's legacy. Plus, Dr. J. can keep a weather eye on the company through his sons. He will also be able to influence its direction as he is a huge shareholder.
Because the Q seems to bring out the best from the best, we can expect it to continue its technolgical leadership in telecom. The dollars from all this wizardy will naturally follow. What the Q has accomplished in a little over a decade is nothing short of astonishing and on a par with what Intel and Microsoft did during their formative years. To put it simply, it came out of nowhere to revolutionize the wireless world.
2.- Uncertainty has always been the Q's hallmark. The cynics and doubters abound, from Tero to lesser talents like rajala and his ilk. They have been consistently proven wrong. I had a good laugh reading Tero's briliantly articulated reasons for why the Q is going to fail and Gregg Powers' frustration at having to deal with someone who was making business judgments on a technology he simply did not understand.
The conclusion I drew from all the cynicism and uncertainty is that FUD will forever hound a company which is in the forefront of technological wizardry. Hence, there will always be shorters, FUD, and volatility. Get used to it if you're LTB&H. Trade on it and profit if you're not.
3.- The Q has delivered on most of its promises because it doesn't overpromise. When Dr. J. says that UMTS will be late and that EDGE is toast, you can book it to be true. Sure, there have been a few delays in chips and a bit of over-optimism in delivery schedules but nothing that is out of the ordinary. It is a credible company on which a shareholder can rely. The Enron-inspired accounting nitpicking that went on a few weeks ago was ridiculous.
4.- The royalty stream and the ASIC biz are going to go gangbusters. There is no argument but that Q is the leader in CDMA ASICs. Earnings are going to go through the roof in a few years, as will the stock price. Absent a calamity, the claims and promises which were only hopeful glimmers in 1996, 1997 and 1998, are becoming a reality. Nokia has purchased a license--there's no end to the energy that was devoted to nitpicking when and and if Nokia would do so. Anyone with any sense at all knew it was invevitable, so the wasted energy on the issue was exactly that.
5.- The other theme is whether data and sophisticated non-voice services will ever be a success. The answer is of course they will! It's already happening.
Ultimately, however, it's not a question of if but a question of when. And when it does happen, the Q will have a leadership role, and will profit enormously from it.
It's a good time to be in Q. The best is yet to come. |
