After 2 days this week, the following partial update on the situation is provided.
The SOX was down 2.7 percent today - for the past 2 days it is down 5.1 percent vs a gain of 25 percent for the prior 6 days.
The Group was down 2.2 percent today - for the past 2 days it is down 3.7 percent vs a gain of 23 percent for the prior 6 days.
For the 2 day period:
AMAT down 5.4 percent vs up 23 percent for the prior 6 days
KLAC down 4.8 percent vs up 21 percent for the prior 6 days
NVLS down 4.0 percent vs up 27 percent for the prior 6 days
TER down 4.4 percent vs up 17 percent for the prior 6 days
NASD down 1.7 percent vs up 11 percent for the prior 6 days
Everyone can make their own interpretation of the data, but I would say the sell off has been relatively mild this week compared to the gains made during the prior 6 days.
The NASDAQ "bounced" off support at 1880 late today and finished the session at 1897.12, close to today's high of 1899.
The SOX dipped to 595.24 late in the day, but then recovered to close at 605.50.
Finally tonight, there are 3 inputs from Briefing.com, 1 negative and 2 positive, that are shown below.(obviously not all the news listed today)
<<Microchip (MCHP) 40.43 -1.50: After close, reports that data from Jan and Feb indicate that the co is tracking towards the upper end of its earlier guidance of net sales for the current quarter of approx. $145 mln (consensus $144.12 mln). Co reaffirms its guidance on EPS at the upper end of the range, or roughly $0.18 (consensus $0.18). "Our current backlog looks better than it has in more than a year, although we will still require substantial turns orders in the next quarter."
Micron Tech (MU) 35.69 -1.26: Morgan Stanley reiterates Outperform rating and price target of $55 on belief that MU will continue to be second largest DRAM manufacturer in the world in Y02 with market share of slightly more than 20%.
Cree (CREE) 16.25 -1.60: After the close, company warns that Q3 (Mar) EPS will be breakeven (consensus $0.07); company is targeting Q3 revs of $32-34 mln (consensus $38.6 mln); citing product delays at the company's UltraRF business, as well as lower short-term LED demand.>>
So having said that above - where does it leave us. I am guessing like everyone else, but so far, I don't think the recent rally has been hurt too bad. We will just have to wait to see what tomorrow brings.
I still say however, as a "side bet", that based on the data so far this week, the SOX will close above 600 at Friday's close.<gg>
Don |
