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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 148.32-3.3%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (10306)3/12/2002 11:18:21 PM
From: mopgcw  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
Actually, per capita is quite relevant. But you also make a valid point with respect to a middle class. The issue is, right now in Asia (ex-Japan), that middle class is not very significant -- it is growing. Some recent stuff estimated China's to be gaining on the size of England. Not insignificant, but also not the size of China. Thus per capita is still relevant. As I posited, if the growth is sustainable the impacts will be huge. Big, big if there.

I would tend to believe that the fact that Intel sold more chips to Asia is only somewhat relevant in that it indicates the location of OEM is changing. Where are the ultimate consumers? Isn't this is what drives the economy and ultimately Intel?

"Look again. China's growth has slowed all the way to 10%."

Not even close (and if you believe the actual numbers, I have a bridge to sell you). From the FEER on China:

ECONOMIC GROWTH EASES
A much slower fourth quarter meant economic growth fell to 7.3% last year from 8% the previous year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, but economists said that they were starting to discern a revival this year. GDP grew 6.6% in the fourth quarter of last year compared with the same quarter a year earlier, leading to overall economic-output growth in 2001 of 7.3%, or total economic output of $1.15 trillion. The fourth-quarter rate put last year's growth under the 7% mark, which is seen as the minimum needed to create jobs for laid-off workers and people entering the job market.

regards,
george
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