Robert: Thanks for your analysis. Is there any color on the capex? Say, if your estimated $65 million is spent or committed by October 2002, what comes due in 2003?
The way I read the Lucent VF Credit Facility. Repayments begin on the entire balance of Financed amounts begining 3 years after they are first accessed! That would mean that Q402 would begin the repayment schedule.
"SECTION 2.08. Amortization of Loans. (a) Subject to adjustment pursuant to paragraph (c) of this Section, the Borrower shall repay Borrowings on each Payment Date set forth below in an aggregate amount equal to the percentage set forth opposite such Payment Date multiplied by an amount equal to the sum of all Loans made during the Availability Period (whether or not previously repaid):
Payment Date Percentage
------------ ----------
Each of first, second, third and fourth 1.25%
Each of fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth 3.75%
Each of ninth, tenth, eleventh and twelfth 5.00%
Each of thirteenth, fourteenth, fifteenth and sixteenth 6.25%
Each of seventeenth, eighteenth, nineteenth and twentieth 8.75%
"
On Lucent Financed amounts of 1.2 Billion Dollars (including 2002 CapEx amounts) (worst case @ Q402) and no roll over allowed. Payment due Lucent from Q4 02 to Q303 would equal approx. 17 million per quarter.
This is why Harvey sayd UFCF in 1H03. The Lucent Payment will only cost about 17 million per quarter.
Based on only 300 million in cash and equivs at the end of Q401, and a 78 million EBITDA loss in 02 and repayment of 17 million to Lucent in Q4. Would leave LWIN with 200 million in cash and equivs at the end of 02 (no funds from Pegaso or FCC deposit returns). In which they should be generating positive EBITDA (according to Harvey's plan). These calculations include the CapEX required to build the infrastructure in most markets out to offer 1XEV-DO data services by the end of 02.
UFCF positive in 1H03 since the CapEx for the 40 market plan will be used! So that is no new money!
I believe that if they can achieve EBITDA positive by Q3 (Harvey says Q4), and begin servicing the Lucent facility, with UFCF positive in 1H03, and have 200 million in the bank, with the Deposit money held by the FCC. Then additional liquidity will be much easier to find, possibly at more affordable rates.
PCSTEL |
