Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Steve Lee who wrote (40507)	3/13/2002 2:42:34 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (2) of 99280

Thread is balanced in evening hours:) greenspan speech was really interesting in that he on the one hand was being spirited by saying(not verbatim!,sorry just brain record here,i capture the essence:) " even a slow recovery, in view of past events of severe equity loss of value and the tragic event of 9/11, should be viewed as a triumph" " The recovery will have to be led by business spending and NOT consumer spending" He goes back and back again to the issue that consumers must SAVE, this has become a repetitive theme with Greenspan. He said that the inventory build up need be met by final side demand and one need be quite cautious on that matter.And he again stresses the demand need come from Cap-Ex and NOT from the consumer. He went on to talk about the boomer generation aging and the huge pressures this will start putting on the economy come 2009 area. He said do NOT look for any repetition of a recovery as in 98 into 2000 as that was caused by extraordinary circumstances, and named preparation for Y2K as but one of those factors. He used the the terms if and but often. In brief he was putting out many asides to be cautious. (in Greenspeak that means "I am DAMNED worried about what happens after this inventory replenishment so PLEESE read beyond my positive statements, i am trying to tell you something without getting rocks thrown at me":) He did also say there are indications the labor market is getting better and did not say anything beyond that regards the labor market. i am typed out:) max p.s. the text was on the most positive side a view that there will be a SLOW recovery and to the most negative when considering if Cap-Ex does not grow and consumer spending slowdown. Also he said the remarkable strength in homebuilders should not be expected to last.(that i am pretty sure he said--he didn't say it would collapse, just don't expect it to maintain this level)

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