Terry: In the case of that particular small cap, or LU, I don't think it has much to do with skepticism. I think the charts are pretty clear. That's not to say that there aren't many ways to view a chart. I respect your analysis, and I did look in LU's (and BA's) chart for bullish signs.
I'm not always bearish. When complacency is at a low point, and most people are taking the bleakest possible view of the market, I tend to see buying opportunities. I am generally a contrarian, and I'm prepared to acknowledge that that's often the wrong approach. That's one reason why I looked for the bullish signals in the charts you mentioned, because I often fail to see them. I often see "overbought" when others see a strong, sustainable uptrend, and it's the positive view that's frequently right.
As for the Dow, I think it could head for the 10,374 area, filling a small gap in DIA's chart, and then maybe even fall back down toward the 200 SMA. But my hunches are irrelevant, since the market has a knack for defying hunches and predictions. When someone writes, "I really feel the market is going to go down at this point," I think, "It's going to go up."
Maybe Chris will post a chart showing his own MACD indicator with the Dow. I have a hunch it's headed for a crossover below the signal line, which is a sell signal. (Of course, there's always the chance that it could brush the MACD signal line and then head up again.) Parabolic SAR is giving a sell signal, too.
I see LU has upped its convertible note offering to $2 billion. When it broke under 5.2 yesterday, it was a lost cause. I could see traders buying it at that support level earlier, but not after it broke down under it. But who knows? Again, it's more than likely it'll do the unexpected. |
