Xilinx (XLNX) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Xilinx (XLNX)

XLNX 194.92

0.0%

Feb 14 4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Dan Spillane who wrote (1316)	7/8/1997 10:35:00 AM
From: Ken Muller	of 3291

Dan: I read your reply to Skeeter. You seem to have solid reasoning for your analysis. Let me suggest you look at the industry numbers with a little different view. Semi growth in units shipped has never dropped over the last 2 years. The main item affecting $$ sales growth was the incredible price erosion which (initially) took place on memory products. In a period over 18 months I saw an 80-90% drop in prices. The culprit was over capacity on IC fabs. I have seen this cut throat price erosion ripple out to the quasi-commodity products (similar fuctions-different pinouts). The .5 micron fab process pricing in Taiwan is now probably at break even levels. If the memory price cutting subsides even a little bit, you will have a significany upward bias on semi $$ growth. This , I believe, is the phenomenon you are seeing with the 3% growth. If you could review the industry numbers w/o memory products, you would have a better feel for what is happening. In any case, price erosion coninues across the board. Let me assure you of 2 things: 1. There is still a huge (I mean huge) over-capacity problem in the semi business(.5 - .8 micron). Price erosion will not stop because the 3rd or 4th quarter is coming up. 2. More downward revisions of earnings will be coming up later this year. The "speculative selling" phenomenon you are witnessing is simply a realization of what this industry is facing short term. Regards, Ken

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next