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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: mishedlo who wrote (40718)3/14/2002 12:22:31 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (3) of 99280
 
Max Pain - A look ahead
Looking ahead (very very early for this as expiry is over a month away, I see the same battle lines being drawn at QQQ 40 and 38 on the call side, and 36 on the PUT side. Max pain, once again is 37 (perliminary but if it holds it will be 3 months in a row).

Given that neither the bears or the bulls are making any headway it would seem that:

1) We are in for yet another month of sideways action

2) the safest thing to do is sit on ones hands for 3 weeks and then bet against whereever we are and in the direction of pain.

Ideally there would be some kind of panic selloff in the next week that one could play for 3 weeks long and two weeks short but that was what we all were waiting for this month and it never happened. It seems no one is expecting this selloff to continue, including mish bear (actually I have no expectation which is in and of itself unusual). I do note with interest the fact several on the Clown Free Zone started going long today.

Does this portend more down right now than anyone expects?

Perhaps this is the time to completely depend on stochastics for entries and exits. That worked all last summer, but in these moves recently it has been useless staying overbought or oversold for quite some time on everything.

I do not see any impetus for big moves in either direction, yet we seem to get them for a week or two each way. Such fun.

So do we start out up or down after Expiry?
I guess we need to see how the next two days play out.

M
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