Subject: "IDEA OF THE DAY"-Trading in&out for profits.
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Will INTEL earnings fall short of market downsized expectations?
To: +j g cordes (1949 )
From: +IQBAL LATIF Jul 8 1997 10:02AM EST
Reply #1952 of 1959
BB's and RSI has a good co- relation in last few months INTC has closed after a correction just on or above median of BB thrice, on all three ocassions next day it closed above the median, I think INTC is going to go higher from here . It should be able to take out the 148 1/2 today and before the earnings will be around 156-158, I have strong basic reason, there is so much negative sentiment surrounds INTC that if they beat the steet not many shorts have the guts to go in numbers with borrowed share. I think INTC will be greatly helped during this transition time with this designed lowered anticipation, they have learnt a good lesson they don't need to be enemy of their own success.
Now, INTC has enough of problems with DEC, product transition and competition the last thing Mr Groove would like is a class action suit filed by shareholders. If INTC is really coming below 10% from the previous quarter Mr Groove lamentations of market being miser with INTC P/E is well out of line, I read the message very clearly, for me it is a signal of all clear, I see no reasons for INTC Inc. to expose themselves to negative publicity, what they already have on the platter is more than enough. I also think $/yen and $/mark has considerably appreciated from the last quarter, translation adjustment when they report in $ would certainly help meeting the market expectations on the higher end.
I was a raging bull on INTC IBM MSFT this is my first inclination that INTC will make the numbers and I would recommend to take positions if INTC breaks my barrier of 148 1/2$, I do have tech confirmations of my recommendation but I am a 'big picture' man and for me every thing has to fall in place before I go long and recommend on this thread.
I have enough reasons to believe that this is a good buy at these levels however I will recommend that at these lofty levels we need to rely on other market indexes also, if market as whole faces kind of serious grilling it suffered two weeks back we will see entry possible at lower levels.
I wrote on pre-split IBM that it would look and sound cheap at 75$, I also recommended aggressive positions, I will reiterate that post split INTC is cheap at 73$, I see it running to 80$ after split if overall market conditions remains the same.
I am made to believe from what I so far has come across that this bull party continues a bit late into the dark nights, these uncharted territories need solid courage and a firm discipline, I think there is still lot of fun to be had but corresponding risk reward is 55% higher than what it was last quarter. Unaccompanied singles are advised to leave at this late stage, it is going to be fun time, but as you all know late parties do sometime get out of hands.
We on our side will make sure that the bouncers on the gates don't go to sleep, so that notice of ' spoilers' intending to raid the party is timely. I have good feeling of IBM, MSFT, SUNW, COMS.
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