Cax,
<< Don't kid yourself, GPRS is a total flop >>
I think you're the one that is kidding yourself.
You can't wish GPRS/EDGE away.
GPRS isn't even being marketed yet on any scale, anywhere in the world.
Network optimization is still going on, and content, applications, data compression/data optimization and delivery mechanisms and the key enablers (Java, WAP 2, XHTML, MMS) are just now starting to deploy.
Mass deployment won't commence till AT LEAST this fall, and realistically maybe a year from now.
The GPRS bearer is commercially launched on over 100 networks today, and will be launched on 200 by the end of the year and in excess of 300 by 2004.
Micrologic Research has cdmaOne/cdam2000 market share calculated at 12.36% (slightly higher than EMC's calculation) today and they have GSM calculated at 67.3% (almost the same as EMC) through the end of 2001. They forecast that by the end of 2005 that market share will be 17.8%, and they are more optimistic on this than EMC which forecasts it at 17% by 2006.
That is a nice increase for cdmaOne ...
... but they also forecast that GSM/GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA market share will be 73,4% by the end of 2005 with only about 3% of that total being WCDMA.
That means that there are going to be a LOT of GSM GPRS phone out there in 2005. By the end of 2004 very few GSM phones will deliver without it.
As a matter of fact the MAJORITY of phones in the marketplace at that time will be GSM GPRS (and GSM GPRS EDGE).
- Eric - |
