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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 52.51+2.7%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: mopgcw who wrote (5906)3/14/2002 11:12:32 PM
From: LLCF  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
<The implications of Japan selling its dollar and other non-yen assets as a response to the fiscal crisis is not a trivial impact. >

In fact economists have worried [cried wolf] about the "reserve currency status" of the US dollar since I was in school [no THAT's a long time] and so far there has been very little real instability [although the rides we did have were not trivial... '87 comes to mind]. That is not to say that the wolf won't really show up! AND I can't imagine a worse time for it to happen, this has been the main reasoning for my forray into GOLD shares last year or so. You have probably seen on the news Japanese have been buying physical gold.... I can't imagine it gets much worse than that over there.... BUT, if they actually start to see $ assets.... as a class, the impact on rates, and inflation here will be more than large.

For companies we watch with access to capital it probably won't matter much as their growth will be so large that macro stuff really doesn't matter [ie. when you come to market with new drugs]... but for the market as a whole, and for availability of capital IMO the next couple years are still critical. I DO NOT believe for a moment this tripe that we're out of the woods and on to recovery yet. Time will tell.

DAK
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