Don't cry for me, Maurice. I sold practically everything by early 1998, at which time I had made a 20.5% average annual return over the previous 11 years. I missed the mania, but also missed the pummelling, which I don't believe is over yet. I am still a bear, but am always ready to reevaluate. However, given the history of bubbles, I think we are far too early in the deflation of this one to be optimistic. (Compare the Nasdaq/Dow with the Dow in '29 and thereafter, gold in ~'80, the Nikkei in '90.)
I don't have time to trade on a daily basis, and probably wouldn't be very good at it with the difficulty of acquiring information. The internet has just created the illusion of a level playing field in information. For all its faults, a Bloomberg terminal (~$25k/yr) and the ability to talk with other professionals creates too big of an advantage for the pros.
Regarding the ranking of the debt, I won't do your research for you, but here is how you make your own fishing pole: you need to get the prospectus(es) for the most recent registered bond that the company issued. If it is registered, it should be available on EDGAR. Within that prospectus should be a discussion of outstanding debt, and how they are relatively ranked. You should also get a copy of the prospectus of the issue you propose to buy, and read the covenant section. Then make your own judgments.
BTW, though I analyzed bonds and their issuers, it is not a place I would play. As a retail investor, I guarantee you should bend over for the screwing you will get on the spread. Ask your broker for the bid/ask. If they are offered at 4 cents, there is likely not even a bid. The bonds are generally covenant-based, and there is probably beaucoup secured ahead of them. Which makes them only marginally better than equity, and you know what I think of that. I can tell you what is probably the case, given what I've seen with other telecom issuers - the equipment vendors have first claim on most of the assets, the banks next, and then the high-yield bonds just ahead of equity. I don't see how you can properly evaluate them without a Bloomberg. Also BTW, I am sure the Global Crossing bonds will be trading flat, which means you do not pay nor are are you entitled to any back interest when you purchase. |
