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Biotech / Medical : QIAGEN (QGENF) - Star of Germany's Biotechs

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To: (no name provided) who wrote (31)7/8/1997 12:23:00 PM
From: Vector1   of 122
 
BIO is not a good comp as they are more of an instrument company and have an a-b stock structure which negatively effects valuation. LTEK is a good comp. It is an excellent company with solid growth prospects. QGENf should get a higher multiple because they have higher margins (LTEK sells a lot of low margin Bovine Serum) and higher growth rate. I think a reasonable (full) multiple for QGENF is about 40x next years earnings given their dominance in separation products and potential growth in other areas.
I agree there is no takeover possibility at these valuations.
The problem is that its dangerous to short a quality company in this market based soley on valuation as opposed to an expected event. They may very well hit earnings estimates. I am however very tempted to take a short poition. Gravity has a way of wiining over time.
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