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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market
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To: maceng2 who wrote (1086)3/15/2002 8:58:33 PM
From: craig crawford  Read Replies (1) of 1643
 
>> Well... When the USA gets a slight chill, the rest of the world gets pneumonia. It's a well known effect even in the UK... When England gets a chill, Scotland gets pneumonia.

i was under the impression that the depression started in europe and reached our shores last. so did we give everyone the cold or did they give it to us?

>> So, if most of your wealth is generated by exporting, and a downturn occurs, satellite countries get hit harder, so exports get hit bad. The downturn is
then reinforced <<

i agree that too much reliance on exports could pose problems. if we sell lots of stuff to everyone else but fail to reciprocate by purchasing imports, how are those countries going to sell enough to afford our manufactures? so it would seem that some sort of balance is desired. the trouble is, it is not balanced anymore. people like buchanan that are branded trade "protectionists" don't believe in not trading with the world---they simply believe that we need to be self-sufficient, and produce at a similar pace as our consumption. running a rapidly expanding trade deficit every single year for thirty years has led to our dependance on foreigners extending us credit and investment, as well as many necessities of life and even some of defense. of course this is another hotly debated topic between economists. some feel exploding trade deficits are a good thing, while others believe they pose grave dangers.

i fall into the camp which believes extreme and growing merchandise trade deficits are not only undesirable but are actually a disturbing symptom of a nation in decline.
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