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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 296.20-0.6%Dec 16 4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (2289)3/16/2002 7:27:53 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (3) of 95587
 
RtS, I don't think we are very far apart in many ways - you are somewhat pessimistic about next week - <<I think it's about 60/40 that the group will close down rather than up on Monday>> - I would vote the other way, 60/40 for an up week. I would say that neither one of us has a strong conviction.<g>

As you are aware, the semi-equips usually trade in the same direction as the NASDAQ. I think the NASDAQ will finish higher next week, and most likely then, the SOX will finish higher as well. From your post you think the SOX may get to 558 by the end of Tuesday - that is a 6 percent loss from Friday's close - that means both Monday and Tuesday have to be significant down days.

The market expects some significant earnings warnings next week - I think there will be some, but not as bad as the market anticipates.

Also, I think Friday gave us some upward momentum that should follow through, unless some "really bad news" hits on Monday morning.

Just for kicks, let me postulate the following. Two weeks ago, the NASDAQ was up 7 percent, last week it was down 3 percent closing at 1868.30. Lets assume another 7 percent run this week. That would put the NASDAQ at 2000 at Friday's close. I like round numbers!<gg>

Don
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