Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (16896)	3/16/2002 10:27:59 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Jay: Thanks for posting Gene Epstein's column. He's on the money as usual, imho. I'll give you three more months before you go bovine. :) The reason the economy hasn't collapsed like it was supposed to is baby boom spending, pure and simple. This huge generational population spike, augmented by 1980s immigration, is an irresistible force. What's more, inflation and interest rates will stay low though Uncle Al will nudge the Federal Funds Rate up a little this year just to remind us who's boss. The US boom continues through about 2008 (acknowledgement to Harry Dent, who has demonstrated this conclusively, again imo). Bubble Part Deux will be with us by late this year or early next. The shorts will get creamed. This is not an ideology thing - I have nothing against shorts or bears. Just recognizing reality. If you sincerely want to show me the error of my ways, you will have to explain: 1) Why there is no inflation, despite Uncle Al's diligent pumping. 2) Why no economic collapse, despite the bears' dearly beloved debt overhang (aka mountain, iceberg, etc.) Regards, Mike

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