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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Short Candidates

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To: tuck who wrote (197)	3/17/2002 10:01:57 AM
From: rkrw	Read Replies (1) of 897

Tuck, Inhaled insulin works there's no doubt about that. Some have been using it for upwards of 4 years. The problem in the case of exubera is fibrosis. ardm's version has seen none of this to date but it's been tested in a fraction and for far less time. So it's impossible to say if ardm will encounter the same side effects, since it could be formulation related issues imo. Either way, I would guess inhaled insulin could be a good 3-5 years from market, assuming it passes fda scrutiny. Exubera may have no shot, but until pfe gives up the partnership, hope will always be there for inhl s/h. With respect to ardm, they've really struggled. High burn rate, a couple of dropped partnerships and an inability to sign new deals has hurt badly. I would speculate the problem is their inhaler is too complex and costly, their financial status has scared partners and a business model which overly relied on partners versus any self initiative. They've done some severely dilutive financings, so they have some cash for now and probably a couple of years of breathing room to make it work.

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