dennis, i don't follow nok, but sandspring hasn't been hitting on all cylinders since the sept low, has the markets character changed?, we have over the last few weeks a bullish internal momentum thrust off some deeply oversold sentiment readings that closely matched the sept/apr lows in the rydex and p/c ratios, is this a thrust like off the sept lows into mid october that was followed by a consolidation, then higher prices, or is this panic buying bull capitulation at the top of a bear market rally like may 2001? (note we didn't get overbought breadth thrust readings then, like we have now)
I don't know, i lost my black mystery meat ball and i can't divine the future without it, only give a vegas book -g-
i think he is probably to bearish with his future wiggle there and probably more sideways makes sense than a big drop to new lows.
i keep looking at the big sentiment base we have been putting in over the last year, and i see possible trend changing
stockcharts.com
the bullish channel in bonds was broken in december and it looks like we have a H&S top in bonds, like we have in the p/c ratio
stockcharts.com
though bonds are oversold now, as the sentiment indicators are getting overbought on a ST basis.
you have the nikkei blasting through it's down channel, a cruel 2 year bear market that created over a 50% retrenchment in 2 years.
stockcharts.com
and a similar kaboom in commodities (notice at the pump prices lately -g-)
stockcharts.com
we have all the earmarkings of a similar bottom, to the bottom in 1998, except this time it's not a tech driven boom.
i think we are getting st overbought, and we should be due for a pullback, maybe after greenie speaks,
but the odds in my book are on higher prices farther down the road, and the point of maximum pessimism buying opportunity , which was the sept low, then again the enronitis feb low are probably behind us for a while, for the averages. There may be some capukelation in some of the weak tech sectors still ahead, would love to see cisco puke up a billion share day =g= |
