Broadband + Overcapacity Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Broadband + Overcapacity

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To: elmatador who wrote (7)	3/18/2002 4:07:11 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) of 11

The basic problem is not whether there will be long term sustained growth for BB or that the fiber already in the ground will eventually be used. The future outlook in five or ten year terms is bright, if not brilliant. The basic problem is not that money was spent on putting in BB capacity but WHERE it was spent. Too many companies built out too many redundant long-lines and major metropolitan and undersea corridors but spent far too little on the "last mile" connection. A major reason for that is simply that the last mile is a messy affair with local engineering and management to handle the design and obtaining local rights of way and permitting. And the cost of putting in the last mile with fiber optic often does not make sense. While it was relatively easy to justify huge debt and equity offerings for generalized forecasted demand, those projections ignored the fact that demand would never materialize to the extent project until the last mile gap was bridged . . . something nobody wanted to pay enough attention to as long as huge salaries and options bonuses were in the offing for pumping up the dream.

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