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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 75.48

+2.0%

Jan 13 3:59 PM EST

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To: RetiredNow who wrote (58549)	3/18/2002 11:10:11 PM
From: JeffT	Read Replies (1) of 77400

mindmeld, as I have said before, DCF is an exercise in futility. In my business your calculations have real value. Businesses are bought and sold everyday based on DCF. It is valid in many cases. For placing a value on Cisco - it is totally worthless. No value whatsoever. No one is going to buy Cisco as an entity. Only nutty investors like you and me decide to buy a few shares at a time. We will make money or lose it because of supply and demand on the exchanges. Does DCF have an effect on supply and demand? You could make an argument that it does, but you would be wrong. I think what really moves the market for Cisco, like today for example, is not your DCF model but rather "fear and greed". That's it. Your calculations are interesting, but actually quite worthless when trying to figure out where Cisco will be price wise tomorrow or next year or five years from now. Also, all the talk I hear about calculating "fair value" is actually quite silly. The market does that everyday for us. The valuation method that is used is not called DCF but NASDAQ. <g> Keep up the good work! Jeff

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