Commodities - The Coming Bull Market Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market

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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (1157)	3/19/2002 1:32:34 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) of 1643

>> so I asked you.. if we had stagflation.. would that then make your thesis a lot more sound..I didn't hear back. << sorry bout that. i don't know much about stagflation, but i do know one thing. stagflation in the 70's proved you do not have to have a roaring economy here in the united states to have inflation and rising commodity prices. if we didn't have a period like the seventies i would be more cautious about a bull market in commodities. the only major thing to consider in my opinion is the fact that commodities are much more closely tied to the global economy and specifically asia these days. so you have to look at commodities in context of the world economic conditions, not just the usa picture. of course, people will say that as goes the usa economy, so goes the rest of the world, so it really is dependant on the economic conditions here in the u.s. so who knows. i just know one thing. we're in a protracted war, the fed is printing money like crazy, and everyone says there is no inflation in sight. that sounds like a recipe for inflation if you ask me. i'm no economist and i can't figure out every last variable, but it just seems like the cycles are turning like they always have in the past. i just believe that commodity prices going higher is that right thing for this country right now. a return to more protectionist policies, a focus on industrial, manufacturing, and agriculture as opposed to high tech and paper flipping. the only way to revive that "old economy" is higher prices. everyone wants to go back to the economy we had a few years ago. they want the mania back. i just don't think that's the right direction for our country, and these tariffs by bush just reinforce my inclination that high tech and financials are not the place to be, but the heartland of america is where it's at.

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