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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Dayuhan who wrote (21673)	3/19/2002 4:07:51 AM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Any government we install is likely to be widely opposed as a puppet, and will probably need continuing military support in order to stay in power Why do you think that? Our alternative leadership options are very thin; the exiles that are sometimes discussed have little or no support base. Probably true but there a lot of people in Iraq who're keeping their heads down but who have ability and aren't too tainted by Saddam and Baath. The country is not a "failed state" in the sense that it's had decades of disorder, and there's a lot to work wth: there's a civil service and an army, and educational institutions - there is structure there which wouldn't be badly wrecked by a war. The Shias I don't know enough about but it doesn't automatically follow that they'd want to join with Iran or be independent just because they're Shia. Kurds there want relief from tryranny and see a Kurdistan as a solution, some of them. But all? I don't know enough but I think possibilities ought to be explored. The people of Iraq have known each other a long time. Some arrangement might be worked out. It's not automatic that if (eg) the US invaded Iraq that it would be unpopular there. The country is run by a dictator who got his start as a professional assassin. Saddam, his family and Baath party have lots of enemies and if it looked at all certain defeat was coming much of the country would turn on them. The country has "elections" so it's likely the population might enjoy a real election. The country has enough of a base it probably could grow a real economy beyond oil. In fact, Iraq is has a small population, and an inferior military compared to those of the western world. Its likely, I think, that if the US invaded the country would fall very quickly. Getting in and out fast. Why might this be necessary? It's possible the citizens of Iraq might enjoy having the US (or Nato) there for awhile. If the (eg) US went in there with a plan to establish a democracy after the defeat what would be wrong with that? Also the pressure on al Qaida means its members are fleeing to the ouskirts of countries like Iraq, Best to get there before they become too established I think these points should be considered and discussed.

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