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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing

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To: russwinter who wrote (2537)	3/19/2002 12:17:09 PM
From: TrueScouse	Read Replies (5) of 39344

Russ: <<the next winners will be company specific and require good stock picking.>> Agreed -- it's vitally important to focus on good quality juniors... the ones that are going to be around for the next bull. Just out of interest, a few weeks ago I took a look at what happened during the last major move in the POG (from mid-1993 to early-1996). During that period: - The POG went from about $320 to $410 approximately: i.e. a 28% increase - The XAU went up from about 90 to 150: i.e. a 67% increase - A basket of good quality juniors I follow (mixed producers and explorers with proven deposits) went up an average of 860% i.e. The percentage increase in the juniors was 30 times the percentage increase in the POG! Extrapolating these figures to the future, for example, a 50% increase in the POG (from $252 to $378 say) could lead to a 1,500% increase in the average price of a good basket of juniors. A 100% increase in the POG could lead to a 3,000% increase in the juniors! This is the sort of leverage we've had in the past, and there's no reason to believe it won't happen again in the future -- IF the POG goes up! :^) Regards, Howy

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