mindmeld:
Fear and greed - right now you feel Cisco fear, a few years ago you felt Cisco greed. What will others, and yourself, cause you to feel tomorrow?
Maybe the stock market, or at least Cisco, is just not the right place for you until you feel more settled, or until the stock price gets to a couple of dollars a share. If I really believed that Cisco was headed to single digits and I could get out today for something in double digits, then I would sell immediately. That is an easy decision for me anyway.
As far as the comment about the stock market value regressing to the economic value over a long term - wow, do you really believe that? When does the "long term" arrive? Will a sign go up that tells us that today is the long term average and it is time to do something? Further, if you look at the valuation model that you and others have used, you are actually too high in your valuation of the company. Look at the market cap you have at those values of yours and you will see that if the company was actually purchased by another company at that price, then it would take an inordinate amount of time for the cash flows to actually pay for the business.
In my humble opinion, you have absolutely no support whatsoever for a claim that DCF will move the market today or tomorrow. What your post does prove is that your own fear does move you, just like your greed did a few years ago. The same emotions of all of us combined is what moves the market. Read your post and you will see fear. I do not ridicule it - I understand it. I feel it too - it goes along with risk. But I did not sell this morning. I would have if I believed what you said.
Since I have no idea at all about where the Cisco stock price will go from here, the only advice I can give you is to take your own advice!
Jeff
BTW: I fully agree that Cisco "could" go to single digits. There are no guarantees of the stock price - only that fear and greed will carry the day tomorrow when the market opens. <g> |
