Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.40

+1.0%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (2321)	3/19/2002 8:29:52 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 95530

Bookings have been flat for 11 months. This is not typical cycle behavior. I believe this atypical behavior will continue and be characterized by very slow order growth. Telecom was initially predicted to pick up after 18 months which would have been H2 '02. We are now seeing predictions of no upturn for telecom in '02 and '03. I have seen a number of analysts use "peak sales capacity" and "peak earnings capacity" to support target and current prices. This omits time as a component of stock valuation and it is ironic(?) that this occurs when time is the most uncertain variable in tech's future business prospects.

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