Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 312.76

+1.1%

4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Bill Cotter who wrote (2342)	3/20/2002 9:44:06 AM
From: Sun Tzu	of 95536

No, it is just that for lack of better projections on my part, I used the historical growth. But if you think for example if you think that the sales growth for both AMAT and KLIC will be 15% over the next 12 months, then the numbers will be: AMAT (1.12 * 1.15 * 47.15) / 7.13 = 8.5 KLIC (1.08 * 1.15 * 32.78) / 1.91 = 21.3 In other words, based on this model, KLIC is about 2.5 times better value than AMAT. Now if you assume that instead of 15%, these guys will grow along their average levels (more favorable to AMAT), then you get: AMAT 1.12^247.15/7.13 = 8.3 KLIC 1.08^232.78/1.91 = 20 So KLIC is still a better buy. Sun Tzu PS in the above calculation I used Gross Margins instead of Operating margin because the difference between the operating margins of the two was too much. The model falls apart when comparing companies with parameters that are too far apart. Which is why it may be more useful for comparing the company to its historical valuations or too its industry. Sun Tzu

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next