re: 50, 50, and 20:
AMAT: began selling at 50, have orders to sell every 5 points on up, will be out completely if/when 65 happens. Mainly a valuation call; IMO most of the entire next upcycle is in the stock, at those prices. The chart looks pretty though, resistance at 50 broken, then we came down, retested 50 from above, and held. But then, the chart and news were great in January 2000, when I finished selling my AMAT LEAPs last upcycle.
CSCO: Their telco customers, IMO, will be the last sector of the economy to recover. So, the equip and component sellers into that space will be in a trading range for all of 2002, I'm guessing. CSCO is actually my largest holding at the moment (all bought in 16.6-14.4 area in February), but my grip is loose on those shares. They have stalled over and over at the 20-22 area in the last 12 months, and I expect that pattern to continue (trading range, buy at 17-14, sell at 20-22). Will start selling aggressively at 20, may reduce that to 19 or 18, if 20 doesn't happen in the next few weeks.
QCOM: This is a harder one. IMO, QCOM has a good chance of becoming a CSCO or even a MSFT. But.......The QCOM chart looks worse than anything else I hold, other than EMC. The telco's balance sheets and price wars mean the 3G buildout keeps receding further into the future. The telcos just don't have the cash flow to do it, and credit availability is bad and getting worse, in that sector. QCOM has not broken out of its 2-year downtrend, for that time rallies have failed consistently just above the 200DMA (now at 52). For two years, every time I sell the rallies and wait for lower lows, it's been the right decision. I'll go with the trend until I see more (fundamental) evidence the trend is changing. I'd like to see someone bidding something for distressed telco assets, for instance. Currently holding QCOM shares bought at 35 and 40. Plan for the shares I bought at 40: sell half of them at 50, half at 55.
The macro news just keeps getting better and better. Housing starts up. Commodity prices up. Unemployment down (big surprise there). Inflation nil (and I don't think the Fed will need to raise rates until 2003). I'm currently 98% long, 2% cash, no shorts/puts. Targetting 35-40% cash if/when Nas hits 1300 (May 2000 high). |
