Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Chris who wrote (32598)	3/20/2002 11:05:36 AM
From: dvdw©	Read Replies (1) of 52237

Chris; You've hosted a good thread, for those of us who need to monitor Trader sentiment. In response to your question it is absolutely yes, but only where forward demand is projected. There is absolutely no way you should play Indexes or baskets profitably when there is a reshuffling of applications going on in the economy. It's happening everywhere, Fiber semis etc., Tech is a big universe with sub sets that have business cycles of their own. Long Haul fiber...NO, Metro and CPE Absolutely. These are natural transitions going on, traders seem to always want to paint a trend with one brush, at best you might catch a move for a few points on an index, but if you understood forward fundamentals and the Supply demand metrics of particular companies you moves can be extraordinary. That is where we are now. A cross roads in the supply demand shift across a wide range of opportunity in tech. To invest in Semis in general, means you might end up neutral in 3 to 4 months out as the natural tendency of the index is too not reveal the direction of it's components in particular but to adjust and balance the index reflecting the particulars as neutral to trending in one direction or the other. Certain Semis in particular are showing extraordinary gains from the OCT 5 & Sept 11 bottoms. Some of these are not even factors in the historical index data. Invention and Macro Economics dictate forward moves good or bad. My style is finding Forward fundamental value, based on Supply and demand. It's true of all tech and true of some other sectors as well, but it's a whole different work ethic to get there. One clue is to watch Accumulation Distribution metrics of the semi stocks in particular. Stocks which split that lack forward fundamental muscle, will distribute on rallies to the extent they experienced float expansion during the bubble phase. These distributions can take years to get to a point of stasis with the market.On the other hand there are many stocks who manifest the opposite characteristics, and that is where your attention should be focused at this time.

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