Fred, I would quibble with you in regard to your views on 'past trends' <ggg>. Technical analysis aside, don't you think it is of the utmost importance to look at the market over the very long term and especially how it reacts to events like the periodic sector fireworks that seem to occur? During the tech boom, I used to rant and rave (occasionally <ggg>) on various threads like JDSU and Cisco about how ridiculous prices were. With Cisco at a 500B market cap, I would see posts like 'there is no reason we can't double again in the next two years'. When you point out that results in a TRILLION+ market cap, they said 'so what'. EMC sported a market cap in the 220B area at it's peak, JDSU north of 150B, even Yahoo was close to an IBM market cap. Just looking at the past, the conglomerate craze, the bowling craze, the oil service stock boom (remember oil going to 100/barrel??), it was pretty clear to me (although I was astounded at how far this one went) that things would blow, and end badly for the latest generation of genius tech investors that had never seen the other side of a parabolic curve.
Regards,
John |
