John-- You are, of course, correct about the overvaluation of the market. In retrospect, I cannot understand how blind I was, but that is true of retrospection. I would still argue that what was wrong was future projections about growth rates. I, along, with many others, thought it impossible that a contraction in techs would occur. Hell, I believed chips would make pigs fly! My point is that it was the change in sales projections -- the future -- that led to the collapse rather than some statistical vascillation around a projected mean. Making predictions into the future is never easy and is error prone.
I have tried, and failed, to make short-term predictions. How can we know about the WTC, Clinton opening up his fly, or when a SEC probe will begin? My most recent error was my conviction that Worldcom was tremendously underpriced. I then bought some for a ST trade and it was doing well until the SEC announced they wanted tons of records about WCOM's accounting. Back into the toilet!
I do see EMC as a wiser company and, in retrospect, realize that storage will attract formidable competition.
fred |
