Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (17117)	3/20/2002 5:48:28 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) of 74559

<<I have come to believe that the fundamental driver of our current prosperity is the huge birth spike of the baby boom generation that peaked around 1960. Harry Dent has proven this conclusively, imo. If you believe Harry Dent's analysis, and I do, then the future holds a continuing economic boom until 2008 or 2009, followed by a long period of economic downturn and recession> This is what I call the "modified greater fool theory"... keep buying no matter the value because the herd will be there buying forcing prices up. My version is that yes, the baby boomer has a big effect [ask any marketing rep] but it's not all clear that it is simple like Dent assumes.... All of a sudden everyone simply sells the top in '08??? I could see a nice economy for non boomers after 09 or whatever based on boomers not working [high wages] and spending their nest eggs. Sure stocks would suck... but with so many boomers with so much more coin than they ever thought they would have... what's to stop them from trying to cash in if things get a tad ugly???? Hell, I think all Dents argument shows is that there is a large herd doing somthing... maybe high volatility and uncertainty in the economy, it's not clear to me at all that they'll simply buy stocks till some majic date... in fact I think they'll find their way into GOLD!! ho ho ho DAK

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