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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II
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To: nspolar who wrote (9628)3/21/2002 10:36:01 AM
From: isopatch  Read Replies (1) of 36161
 
ns. No. But have tried to stress in posts

that Deflation is a secular trend (i.e. a mega trend that will span many ordinary individual economic cycles of recession and recovery)

In a recovery, such as we've been in for some time now, deflation will subside temporarily as the flood of Fed liquidity mutes it's effects. If my big picture view is right, the rest of this decade will see a series of weak and sub-par recovery phases followed by recessions where deflationary forces will become stronger and stronger each successive cycle.

But even during recoveries, inflationary numbers will be muted and disappoint those counting on a large resurgence there. The kind of rallies we've been seeing in the CRB and commodity cyclical stocks sectors are normal for an economic recovery. They don't IMHO foretell major inflation like we saw in the 1970s.

Gotta run. Way way behind in my DD and market monitoring work. Cya later.

Regards,

Isopatch
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