If you look at '01...looks like Japan actually peaked before April 1st (now granted, in April it picked up the pace again and set a marginal new high in May, but I believe that was a result of Fed cutting, the massive US rally raising all boats, "recovery around corner", etc)
Think about it this way....Smart money (I believe) started buying the mark-to-market ramp early...then you had technical guys, and then finally some not-as-smart sideline money and momo buying at the end (missed most of the pop)...In the last week, I think the smart money is selling (and looking to redeploy, hence my comments), and this will continue for next few weeks..
At first (like right now, window until March 1st)...Japan doesn't move down as rapidly, because late-buying "suckers" keep it up...while smart money bails...of course, in April (like last May), dumb money gives up (likely at a loss), and a real decline begins..
This is my theory of course....don't have facts to back up-g
Finally, like last year, a massive US happy rally could float the Nikkei another month, but then it would definently be a sell (look at last year's activity).. |
