Well, I think today is the pivot point for the Nas. From here we should go to a minimum of 2100 in the next 6-8 weeks. Though my call was for 1850, it seems 1825 represented the short term bottom. I'd be doing very well if I was trading the index. However that wasnt the focus here. Let's see what my options do from these levels- they could have been potentially much more lucrative if I had bought here and simply been more patient. The CHKP entry and the AETH decision bother me because they were definitely mistakes. The GNSS position was fine, but as mentioned before, I would have been far better off selling them for $5 when the stock didnt break through the resistance at $32. I was fooled by what seemed to be significant relative strength- it wasn't going down nearly as much as other tech stocks in this recent downturn. But once the stock backed off $32 I should have immediately sold and looked for a re-entry. Instead I held hoping it would have another shot at breaking through it's resistance. But it never got that chance, slowly melting over the next few days. I had another opportunity to sell at this stage, basically getting out even on the trade, but I didnt- and for no good reason really. Then, yesterday the stupid CFO news brought it down to the point that all I could do was hold.
Now, the stock seems to be rebounding with the rest of the Nas, and I have another decision to make. According to my theory, the Nas (in fits and starts) should go up from here. With that in mind, my initial intention is just to hold on to the options in all three stocks (CHKP, GNSS and AETH) and ride the uptrend. I could still make nice profits out of all of them if we get a good rally here. So, until/if/when I change my mind on the overall market's direction, I will be holding these (and if I had more $ I would be buying calls today- well I would have much earlier today anyway). |
