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Strategies & Market Trends : Joe Stocks Trader Talk
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To: Joe Stocks who started this subject3/21/2002 7:26:02 PM
From: Joe Stocks   of 787
 
From Fleckenstein's commentary via Richard Russell.
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Regression to the Mean Streets: In the what's-wrong-with-the-market department, fantasy debunker Richard Russell had a couple of interesting quotes yesterday from Charles Allmon. For those of you who think the stock market is reasonably priced and is always going to go up, here's a little food for thought. From the period 1871 to 1997, the average annual return for the market was 7%. Of that, 1.6% was from appreciation, and 5.4% from dividends. The average price-to-earnings ratio was about 14.5. Obviously, if we were to have a regression to the mean in terms of P/E ratios and dividend yields, that would imply a decline of well over 50%.
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