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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go?
EMC 29.050.0%Sep 15 5:00 PM EST

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To: Bob Frasca who wrote (13959)3/22/2002 1:15:51 AM
From: Gus  Read Replies (3) of 17183
 
Still out of the country, Bob, so I can't post as much. Thx for asking.

Anyway, it looks like I was right that while EMC indeed lost market share in traditional DAS storage in 2001, its market share gains in networked storage (SAN and NAS) were enough to increase its market share in Storage Software.

According to EMC, it ships an average of 12 software products per networked storage deployment compared to an average of 3 software products per DAS deployment. According to Gartner, excluding CA's accounting change, the storage software market actually grew 13.3% from 2000 to 2001 compared to the overall software industry growth rate of around 6%.

EMC's overall market share of the 2001 storage hardware was around 25%-26%, but its share of the networked storage market was around 39% and its share of the storage software market was around 30%. The storage services numbers are harder to find much less interpret but this was the only part of EMC's business that grew more than 50% so it's fair to assume that they gained market share in that area too.

The crossover point to watch, of course, is between EMC's storage management software market share and its storage hardware market share, particularly networked storage which now stands at around 39% vs 30% for the software business. This will probably be a good indicator of progress in such EMC initiatives as AutoIS and Widesky.

As networked storage works its way into the mainstream enterprise market, I wouldn't be surprised to find EMC's hardware/software market share numbers to be in the 30%/40% or 35%/45% range. Put another way, those types of market share numbers probably assure that EMC reaches its 2003 goal of having 50% of revenues come from hardware, 30% from software and 20% from services.

Also notable is the performance of IBM's storage software business. IBM more than doubled its share of the SAN and NAS markets in 2001 so many were expecting it to gain market share in storage software. However, it is becoming clearer that IBM/Tivoli and the major system management framework players like CA, HWP/OpenView, BMC Software and Compuware continue to suffer from the market shift to point products over frameworks and that may very well be affecting the storage software businesses of these system management framework players no matter how hard they try to decomponentize their rigid frameworks.


Storage Management Software
1999-2001

1999 Share 2000 Share 2001 Share

EMC $ 803M 19.6% $1.4B 28.3% $1.5B 30.4%
Veritas 505M 12.3% 859M 18.0% 977M 19.8%
IBM 724M 17.7% 530M 11.1% 701M 14.2%
CA 799M 19.5% 616M 12.9% 203M 4.1%
Compaq 45M 1.1% 143M 3.0% 198M 4.0%
Legato 172M 4.2% 139M 2.9% 143M 2.9%
BMC 229M 5.6% 163M 3.4% 136M 2.8%
Storagetek 113M 2.8% 144M 3.0% 120M 2.4%
Netapp 53M 1.3% 113M 2.4% 109M 2.2%
HDS NA NA 57M 1.2% 92M 1.9%
Others 578M 14.1% 669M 14.1% 754M 15.3%

Total $4.1B 100.0% $4.8B 100.0% $4.9B 100.0%

Sources:

1) 1999 numbers - from April 2001 Gartner/Dataquest report.

dmreview.com

2) 2000 and 2001 numbers - from March 2002 Gartner report.

byteandswitch.com
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