Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.11

+6.9%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Kirk © who wrote (62245)	3/22/2002 11:40:41 AM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Chips are expected to go from their current 0.7% GWP to 5.3% of GWP in not too many years. Yes, but... "Semiconductor sales would equal the gross world product in 60 years if the growth trends of the past three decades continue." So when do we reach "maturity"?... "Fig. 3 shows a plausible scenario of the steady state. [Semi sales/GWP] would be 3%. This is today's value doubled twice. Two doublings suggests 6 more generation of new technologies to 0.035um technology before reaching the steady state. At that time, the semiconductor industry is 25 times the present size in real dollars; one year's growth would be larger than today's entire industry. After 2030, the semiconductor industry may become a mature industry growing at the same rate as the GWP much like the automotive industry in the last 60 years or the airplane industry in the last 40 years." lxm.cs.pku.edu.cn [charts or "figures" not included in this copy] Sam

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