I have no experience with hardware development. But in software development, when you are nine months from shipping to customers after three years of development, then you are into the final system test, approaching the beta testing cycle. At that stage, any half-decent management can predict the ship date to within a couple of months.
Well, for one thing, in software development, a bug doesn't result in a possible re-spin of silicon. That's not to say that software is by any stretch of the imagination easier than hardware. A re-spin costs, what, 10 - 12 weeks? Not sure. The other thing about these long schedules is that, if it becomes apparent that one company is going to get a jump on the other re performance, there is a lot of time to change strategy and try to catch up. Intel's apparently pouring the coals on 0.09 could be that scenario.
One way to look at it is that, with these two companies pushing each other like they are, all others probably get left in the dust. Well, IBM is one that can pour on the coals too.
Tony |
