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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Bob Rudd who wrote (13393)	3/22/2002 4:19:17 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (2) of 78590

CPN: Closed-out the balance of this today with ~18% gain overall. I earned every painful nickle of it, too, considering the 'adverse excursion' this has taken. So many things went wrong: Energy shortage - Where did it go? Once it's shown to be unlike Enron, clear sailing? Nope. California loves these guys cause they were so cooperative, so Ca. won't try to blow away the contracts...Like Hell they won't [I doubt Ca. prevails but negative news flows won't help] All utilities have debt...not such a bad thing...Yeah, right. High debt turns a business 'cold' into Pneumonia. Watched asset based valuations melt like snowballs on a Phoenix parking lost...largely due to debt leverage. Likewise earnings estimates: down, down down Analysts with high price targets like Lehman [$50] scurried down a rat hole when negative news flow began. Now these former fans consider it neutral, fully valued or market performs...all euphemisms for sell. This pop seems based on takeover speculation: Not a game I play. The only reason I got out of this with my hide in tact was buying a bunch near the lows and selling into this rise.

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