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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: Tom Lu who wrote (3877)7/8/1997 7:13:00 PM
From: steve lipson   of 13594
 
Tom

Every problem you listed is true. So just imagine how much AOL stock might be worth if they manage to fix some or all of those problems <g>.

None of those things is as important as the key factors you failed to identify. You look backwards at AOLs old problems. Investors are looking ahead and responding to the radically changing fundamentals evidenced by the series of marketing deals AOL has put together.

For AOL to qualify as a shorter's paradise you'd like to be dealing with development-stage technology that is being portrayed as proven and ready to ship when it actually looks like it will take a miracle to make the product work, or when it is nothing anybody will really want. Another classic short opportunity is when you have small companies that are competing against giants (and I would qualify that to only include only big as well as smart companies) that just haven't bothered to do anything about them yet. (Checkers and a host of other fast food concepts that grew just big enough to get the attention of McDonald's come to mind here.)

So unless you think people are not going to want access to an online service, or you can identify a competitor and make a positive case for their service beating AOL in the mass market, than I think you need to look elsewhere for your short list.
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