It looks like the last time the VIX broke 20 was mid August 2000, right before the Sept. massacre.
Also, it looks like it touched 20 beginning of July last year right before it was all down hill.
Interesting.
It could go lower, who knows, but I can't imagine it going much lower or for long.
As far as guidance coming with earnings, major CEO's have said, no recovery in site, Immelt, Brown, Barrett, Gates, even Buffet, so I can't imagine guidance being bullish in April.
Dale, Expectations for good guidance from tech companies is less and less; so maybe they will surprise. Not expecting too much bullishness as all the talk is about no pick up in corporate IT spending. So this information is known and should not be a total surprise to anyone.
What really concerns me is the VIX. I have read a bunch of stuff that things are different this time and a low Vix is not necessarily indicating we are heading down.
Then all of a sudden it hit me! That is the type of logic used by strategist/analysts/managers back in 1999 and early 2000 when asked to justify buying stocks that had high PEs. PEs did not matter is what was believed back then...how wrong that turned out to be.
I wonder if the example of the low VIX and people trying to work out all kinds of explanations is a sign that the markets will drop. If we only had skeptics, that might have been a different story.
This market is totally unpredictable at this point; can't believe the Nasdaq will stay in such a tight range for long. Maybe volatility is about to return.
jmho. |
