Hi Maurice, Warning, my post only serves to amuse me and as an on-line journal. Your postings are good for amusement as well being historically relevant at a later date, when we look backward. Thanks.
<<upbeat ... Lexus ... buying ... means the economy is going great ... correlation previously ... expect a global economic acceleration of large proportions>> ...
Do tell more! In which direction? What happens to you If you are wrong? As you were on Q, then on GX and then again on GX? No, my 0.55% does not qualify as a wrong.
When is it too late to worry (answer, when it is well underway and when it is finally over). In the nasty time, do not forget the elephant …
quote.bloomberg.com
OK, onward and forward, to be rear warded.
"Who is our enemy, and who is a friend, that is the fundamental question"
"The masses, and only the masses, constitute the true momentum force of history"
"Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun"
These were words from the late Chairman, once future leader of the great unwashed proletariat masses, when he was still living in the caves of Yenan, before US General Stillwell visited him and pronounced that one day the peasant rebel will rule China.
Why the quotations from times past? I do not exactly know yet. I feel the history and sense the quotations will be important, because they describe the threads that were weaved into the tapestry of the current global investment environment. Or, in your language, twisted into the zygote DNA lattice that will be not-Q.
Lexus? Nothing at all about a Lexus.
Is inflation the enemy, or deflation the clear and present danger? I do not know. Neither do you.
Why are perfectly ordinary masses talking about using nuclear weapons on unseen enemies, and other equally ordinary crowds battling tanks with almost bare hands? I have no clue. Neither do you.
Whatever happened to the Peace Dividend? In Argentina perhaps? I have no idea. You?
I was asked by a cyber friend in SE Asia, “I now wonder whether it is safe to return to the stock markets in general, and technology stocks in particular. It would seem, reading many articles, that a strong recovery is in the cards, and that the many good technology companies based in the US (cisco, intel, microsoft, and a whole range of small and mid-cap tech stocks) are poised for a rebound.”
You would probably respond, 'yes, absolutely, Q me up'.
ACF Mike would perhaps reply, 'yes, but of course, ride it up, do not time it, and ride it down'.
CB, I suppose, possibly wrongly, would helpfully post 'yup, but only if you pick the right stocks at a good time'.
Well, I say, apparently uselessly and to no use, 'no, no way, because the cleansing has only just begun. The force is not with us'.
I do not recommend that you back up the Tonka to load up on claims on electronic blips. Instead, say gold, land, astronomically complicated equation of time machines, or, simply open wide and say, 'ah'.
I do not deny that a recovery is taking place on the financial markets, of a sort, in a manner, just so, just as I do not deny that Japan recovered 6+ times in the past 12 years and is about to do so again. Facts are facts. But facts must be put in context, so that truth emerges.
Perhaps ‘recovery’ is not quite the proper word to use. Perhaps we ought to say, ‘the financial market is still twitching, fighting for its dear life’.
You had mentioned once long ago that you would exit equities if there is a genuine threat of big war caused by Ms Rice's urge to play soldier girl. You must now feel there is no threat of civilization war, which BTW, was never contemplated by the ‘gloomsters’ and ‘doomsters’ in the FC 2001 script; especially of the unconventional sort, a mix-up of hit-and-die WMD urban guerrilla method against a lumbering pound-the-rocks-into-dust nation-state style.
Neah, too weird, never experienced, cannot happen, so no adjustment to portfolio necessary. Besides, according to you, history has nothing to teach us, and Greenspoo and Q will take care of the future. Yup, governments will hence forth always tell the truth, but processed strategically, and pissed off crowds will always continue to cower and withstand another kick in the head. Oh, yes, greed will no longer motivate.
There may not be such a war. There is certainly a threat of just such a war. Otherwise, see, the Delta airline terminal would not have to shut down a few hours some hours ago. The business of crowds is to make wars now, everywhere, all at the same time, without half time, and no set innings. You perhaps have come around to CB's view that war of a general nature is bullish for some or all equities, as CNBC says. Perhaps you believe war is particularly bullish when equity valuation is already high and debt at a historic peak. You did not agree at the time when she first put forth that opinion, but out of context of existing valuation status.
I am now (March 22nd Friday) at 30k feet again, looking downward and backward, at the end of a usual week, heading back to Concrete Money Rock and Freedom Asphalt Beach.
I had just entertained myself by reviewing the avalanche of postings, while snacking on dim sum pastries, after browsing a week's worth of news clippings, concentrating on the good news in particular, and before powerfully and viciously relieving myself in the WC.
Now I am ready to finish this post, started at the beginning of the week, for the end of the week.
So, you are about to consume a Lexus, AC is still fully invested in equities, CB remains bullish but in the glaring context of holding all cash, and other threaders are discussing assets and debt, home and echo boom, and I spotted one mention of my coconut construct accounting unit for savings, or nausages.
I am now (March 20 Wednesday) in a China produced Red Flag sedan. To you, the sedan is actually a China manufactured Audi less the engine, powered by a China produced DaimlerChrysler Jeep Cherokee engine less the car. The car has nothing to do with VW-Audi, and less to do DaimlerChrysler. The car looks exactly like an Audi and sounds like a Cherokee Jeep. Intellectual Property lawyers can try to convince the companies affected to litigate;0/
The driver is taking me to Shijiazhuang, the provincial capital of Hebei, within which Beijing is also located.
An aside: The driver used to work for my buddy who is now managing a foreign direct investment in Pakistan. I had dinner with the friend in early March while he was on R&R. He tells me Pakistan is no fun, especially with 3 armored cars, 6 bodyguards, hand guns and grenades (I taught him that trick because he shouldn’t do TV style shoortout agaist professionals within the confines of his living room) around the house, and no clubs for entertainment. He has a box of shoe polish for instant-melanin-enhancement and a presto-life-preserving robe in his attaché case at all times and is friend with all the generals. He misses his China posting, but getting lots of fiat paper for his troubles.
I put some faith in his observations on the progress of WAT on the ground, at least more so than the CNN chants.
The drive to Shijiazhuang will take three hours. I will have eye ball to eye ball lunch with the man who will be rich, assuming all goes according to his plan and my plan. We both have carefully choreographed our respective plans, robustly tweaked the plans against contingencies and against the other's possible plans.
Back to the main thread. My newly acquired platinum multi-complication perpetual astronomical equation of time machine should arrive on my desk via DHL by the time I return to Freedom Rock.
I intend to first rub the machine rudely against myself, before against a lady MBA, and then ponder the very different bet you and I are making.
I have changed my mind, not about the market, but the sequence of rubbing vs. pondering.
I am betting that two Lexus worth of time machine will double in value, in the currency of its country of origin, quadruple in value in USD, and quintuple in value against the home currency of the Lexus, and up 400 fold against your then used Lexus, all before the end of the old New Ec & Newer old WAT.
Oops, I changed my idea once more. I take out the bit about WAT, because there is no end to that until there is a change to everything you and I are familiar with, be it the gas, gold, home, watch, Lexus, and equity prices, or the world equilibrium state, in terms of polarities, spin state, energy levels, prosperity spheres, trade blocks, and balance of whatever.
Your purchasing of a Lexus is a bet. You are saying (a) Lexus will not become cheaper on the primary market, and/or (b) Lexus will not flood the secondary market. Your Lexus bet is in harmony with you Q wager.
OTOH, perhaps the simplest explanation is the correct one: you need a Lexus, as well as a hope called Q.
Any other explanation would put you in the category of folks oblivious to valuation, irrationally exuberant on Greensputin, blind to the pitfalls to globalization without planetary happiness, unthinking about the Enron explications, and, ever in denial, not taking WAT implications seriously.
The implication of Enron is 'the system is rotten, and therefore unstable', quite unlike what you believed and apparently continue to holding on to unwarranted historical faith.
The explication of WAT is endless, meaning perpetual, like the astronomically complicated platinum equation of time machine that I will first fondle and then rub. FYI, WAT is another name for global war of civilizations, as opposed to a police action, War on Saddam, or any other simple out-of-context answers on CNN.
You, with your purchase of the Lexus, and AC, with his full-on equity position, are being complacent about what no one can understand. You are living in a pre-911 world, trapped in the microwave oven cum time machine, clothed in specially fitted exploding windbreakers.
You do not take your own sometimes-correct ideas seriously enough …
Message 17223849
<<The world is different from the past … Major Paradigm Shift Happens>>
By comparison, I am cautious, and actually optimistic, if put and taken in glaring context of my allocation of assets, as compared to and as CB should be able to tell, because I have not drastically altered my allocation even though the parameters of FC 2001 script has been vastly breached on the downside.
To add spice to the excitement, I call your attention to a piece of news about the direction of global trade. You can impute the consequences on capital flow, productivity, and such, but remember to overlay the additional frictional heat loss due to security concerns, measures and counter measures (ACF Mike, 'THEY' may soon redefine your fasteners as thick cylindrical threaded steel sheets looking like fasteners but are not):
Message 17231800
Here is a reminder, given that you have obviously either forgotten or choose to ignore, of the possible nature of WAT:
Message 17231804
Statistically and weirdly, both events will boost the GDP, as CB will point out, but minus the wealth, subtract the happiness, and less the equity valuation, somewhere and/or everywhere. I do not pretend to understand what will process or result, as agonizingly indicated by my allocation position. The statistics will be fawned over by Gene Epstein, and then perhaps posted by ACF Mike.
Remember the time when Medroogies was talking up ORCL and I down Oracle, and it turned out he held almost no Oracle, and I sat on enough ORCL to get the Annual Report?
Context is everything, less the opinions.
Context, in a different sense and sentence, can be used as follows, 'the current global investment context is simply not suitable for all-or-nothing, telecosmic included, single/few/related asset class bets. Reason? We had not been here before, and have zip history to guide us. You said so yourself,
Message 17229140
<<We ignore all history (correct). It's irrelevant (wrong). It's gone (correct). It's finished (not quite). It's history (no doubt). There is no gravitational pull to any of the norms which have gone before (maybe, but perhaps not). People create their norms now for how they see now and the future (yes, at least according to the Chairman when he was living in caves). Those who look in the rear view mirror will run off the road (and some will crash while leading to caravan, looking forward)>>
Oh, yes, in case you are wrong about everything or some important things, here is a cure, and then a cure for the cure, in case the original cure fails to work:
cbs.marketwatch.com
And if they are wrong, we can train the bean counters to become deer dropping counters:0)
Message 17231813
I have some more and equally random thoughts.
BTW, in case you think otherwise, we are way out and beyond the FC script. We are in Tsunami:
Message 17231819
Message 17235507
This FT article describes, in one neat package, the pits and falls of China investment, what clients pay me sausages and nausages to resolve, what Chinese local partners scheme to get rich off of:
Message 17231821
This article describes my next abracadabra. I intend to track the beast, engage it in battle, and hunt it down remorselessly for my troppo Trini coconut-calypso countrymen:
Message 17231826
feer.com
Oh yes, Grace and Elmat, the primary residence, in its totality, is an asset on the balance sheet, and the offsetting mortgage, plus the layering of home equity debt, are related liabilities. However, the totality of home asset minus related home liabilities are a bit less than savings, defined as snausages, because the primary residence is mostly consumption, with a nominally growing residual value of interest only to folks moving from more expensive to less expensive geographies or circumstances, and to their grasping heirs. US tax convolutions add an additional sheen of confusion.
Message 15560046
Finally, I hope the balance sheet did, nominally and really, improve for the boomers, because they will soon, and sooner than before, need to call upon the assumed resources, and will need to count on buyers for the less liquid of resources.
Chugs, Jay
Before someone, anyone, posts, 'but Jay, housing is strong':
Message 17209748 |
