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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 316.33

+1.3%

Dec 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (2375)	3/24/2002 12:04:13 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) of 95561

RtS, first let me share a useful charting tool bigcharts.marketwatch.com This compares SOX [the 'mountain' chart] vs several of the Semi equipment stocks. What's especially nice is that you can have them e-mail a chart at regular intervals. I saved this chart in my favorites list, which is kept by BigCharts. Of course you can change the time period. Don't tell Scott J. and Bob F. - they'll gloat because KLIC and COHU are on top. :) You said >the book-to-bill ratio would be higher already if companies were still recording their sales as they used to do< I think btb would be lower. Bookings [also known as orders] are not affected, but billings are lower now because some customers have not been billed for equipment they have on their site, but have not formally accepted. Since billings are in the denominator, lower billings give us higher btb. Re How many months in a row has it taken in the past for the btb to signal a sustained run higher Look at the following two charts showing the two previous downturns.[the number at the top of each bar is the btb that goes with the bookings the bar represents]. The bookings and btb are charted at the time they were ANNOUNCED to the public. suite101.com suite101.com We had decisive V bottoms then and stock price never looked back after the turn was apparent. This time we have meandered along a bookings bottom. But the stock action shows an increase in upward slope now and I think those waiting for significant pullback are out of the game. example bigcharts.marketwatch.com The slope changed about a month ago. All stocks charted have outperformed SOX since then. Regards Gottfried

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