Perspective.
Despite a degree of arrogance that implies some sort of expertise, we've finally been able to test whether Cary's opinions really are any better than the slovenly hoi-polloi (everyone else) he so often lectures.
A couple months back Cary listed his favorite stocks in the semiconductor universe (on the 'Blood-in-the-streets' thread, I believe). At the same time he was was dissing most other semi stocks. He specifically derided a participant for suggesting that Cymer (CYMI) might be an excellent buy at the time by responding, 'I certainly would not (buy it)!'.
In response to such behavior, I created 2 portfolios, Cary's (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio/detail.gsp?pid=9294759) and Cary's...NOT (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio/detail.gsp?pid=9294760), the latter consisting of the stocks that Cary explicitly or implicitly scorned.
Results to date:
Cary's...NOT: +13.4%
Cary's: +12.2%
And which stock is the best performing of the 16 in the two portfolios?
CYMI, up 34.9%.
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As is common to the vast majority of self-proclaimed biotech 'mavens' on SI, Cary is but one more example, and one more stark lesson, that arrogance and insight are two very different, and often mutually exclusive, traits.
So when Cary tells us what he expects for the sector, suggesting he understands the effects of the accounting changes etc. better than the analysts, keep his track record, not his attitude, front and center.
Such an approach will may very well spare you from missing out on a spring rally in the equipment sector. |
