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Technology Stocks : MERQ - Mercury Interactive
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To: MGV who wrote (491)3/24/2002 1:02:52 PM
From: techanalyst1  Read Replies (1) of 512
 
Hmmm.... how likely? In April? Well... I've owned merq for several years and no matter how nice it looks it seems to sell off in April no matter what the fundamentals are, so I'd say fairly good chance sometime in April it sees low 30's, maybe less. Would I sell my shares thinking that might happen? Nope.

You're right, it's not cheap here. I think published estimates are for .66 this year and .91 next year. I won't be surprised if next year they actually make more along the 1.20 range... but next year is a long way off and I wouldn't buy it on speculation that it does that. (I think that estimates for 2001 were just slightly above that before they acquired Freshwater and IT departments cut back spending).

Merq has a few positives that not all software techs have:
Repeat revenue model
Relatively small deal size
The software saves companies money by allowing them to use hardware more efficiently (ie. buying less hardware)
Quickly installed and running with a quick ROI
They are numero uno in their niche.

Btw... I don't really care what the talking heads have to say because I think they're right maybe 50% of the time. I only put that post here because that particular brokerage bungled their previous call so badly that it tanked merq to 28.40 the day earnings were released. Where was it the next day? Over 36 when in fact they not only didn't miss estimates or guide down they exceeded them and guided up.

TA
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