If you email IR at Merq you'll probably get more accurate answers than from me. I'm not an analyst, just a regular investor that happens to have owned Merq for many years.
Orcl has fundamental issues that Merq doesn't have (an older more mature market for one) and a Ceo that is um, well... a little "flamboyant". Orcl is a repeat offender in the area of overpromising and under delivering whereas Merq only got caught this last year and had it not been for the WTC they may not have even had to guide lower (yes, they still had estimates cut due to the declining economy) and yes their stock got hurt due to the deflation of the bubble. Merq's guidance has always been on the conservative side since I've owned it (4 years) and imo, from listening to the ceo on previous cc's and webcasts, won't be pushed into calling a bottom in the economy (he went against the grain in one of the recent tech conferences in refusing to go along with the prevailing opinion that THE bottom was in "for sure" but rather "saw signs of stability"), won't be timid about what their pipeline is showing either. The history of consistently performing as they've promised gives them credibility. There is no glory in making wild claims only to have them blown to pieces later and what difference does it make to a long term investor anyway to see the price swing wildly with a ceo that can't make up his mind on where the company is going from week to week?
As far as Oscar Gruss........ yes they have valid points. It's a matter of short term vs. long term views of the company. For the guidance that they've given, the stock is no longer a "value" play, but on a longer term, Merq's stock is most likely going higher, and in several years, imo, probably much higher. In the short term, I don't even know which way the wind is going to blow, so I couldn't say where the stock will go either.
TA |
