with stocks no higher, after rate cuts, sign of bear rally
both bear rally in stocks and in economy
I think the main impetus behind economic recovery so far has been tax cuts and whopping increases to both consumer debt and federal debt
if we do see some economic recovery for real, I think it is likely to be fleeting, brief, thin, and unsustained
during that period, some energy inflation will fire gold/silver out of the box that central and bullion bankers have put it in
then when recession resumes in 8-12 months, inflation will continue while businesses must absorb higher energy costs
this is where it gets dicey
inflation will work its way into the system while the economy stagnates
this is what the stock market is telling us with no higher highs
heck, no higher highs!!!
not even a 30% retracement of past declines in Naz
I expect inflation in energy costs (from short supply)
and deflation in goods basic costs (from excess supply)
gonna be the most dangerous period of stock investing in history
it will undermine the USDollar finally
and begin to reverse the 30-yr failed experiment abandoning secured currency
without secured currency, the entire economy becomes a bubble
we would have seen raging inflation by now, with the 100% increase in money supply, except that cheap imports hid this effect
with a sliding dollar, it all comes home
/ jim |
