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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH
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To: joseph krinsky who wrote (241878)3/25/2002 8:32:29 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (1) of 769670
 
POLLING DATA INDICATE DRAMATIC DROP IN BUSH APPROVAL RATING!

Reviewing the material presented in the latest polling data available at pollingreport.com

I have done an analysis of the approval rating trend for Resident Shrub. It’s looking bad. Sorry, Dubya, the trend is definitely not your friend.

Here’s the methodology. I’ve used the approval rating on the date closest to the 911 incident for each of the polling agencies, and compared that data with the most recently available results. The percentage change is notated for both the individual surveys and for a aggregated total counting each survey individually, rather than on a total respondents basis.

Methodlology:
Source = News or Polling Group Name
Max. Appr. % = Highest Approval Rating for President in Survey post-9/11
Latest Rating = Approval Rating for President in Latest Survey performed
% Change = (Sept. Appr % - Latest Rating)
Trend = This is the hypothetical Approval rating on the First Tuesday in
November with present trends of deteriorating popularity of Shrub’s
policies calculated and projected.

Here’s the results: 
 

Source:      Max. Appr. %  Latest Rating  % change   Trend

ABC/WashPost     92%            82%         -10%      -23%
Bloomberg        83             74           -9       -20
CBS/NYTimes      90             78          -12       -26
CNN/Time         89             75          -14       -32
FOX/OpinDyn      88             80           -8       -18  
Gallup/CNN/      90             80          -10       -23
Harris           88             79           -9       -20
IBD/CSMonitor    82             72          -10       -23
LA Times         86             80           -6       -14
NBC/WSJ          88             82           -6       -14
Newsweek         88             74          -14       -32
Pew Research     86             78           -8       -18
Zogby            82             74           -8       -18

Average:         87             77          -10       -23

So, extrapolating to Election Day, the Shrub seems to be headed for about a 64% approval rating. Which I’m certain has just as much validity as a projection as the nonsense that comes out of OMB. <g>

BTW, joseph, thanks for the link. I haven’t seen such a useful polling site before. :)

-Ray
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