Re: I'd say that's much slower than Athlon, so why do you suppose such a conservative figure? I'm sure you can spin it any way you want, but amongst all the hype, this kind of a prediction probably means a very slow Hammer ramp, probably due to reasons that AMD doesn't want to share right now.
It's exactly the same as the forecasts for Athlon at the same stage of its deployment. Remember the extensive and detailed roadmaps for K6-III+ on .18?
As soon as they were sure Athlon was as fabulous as the samples had indicated, K6-III+ became a notebook only chip, then quickly faded away.
It won't be quite the same for the hammers, since AMD won't be going from 6% to 8% of the market to 18% to 24% of the market this time. They'll be going for 30% to 40% of the market by Q3 of next year, and that will require that they maintain a volume of entry level chips. Figure on, for the later quarters of next year, 3-5 million .18 Athlons from UMC each quarter, and 10-12 million hammers from Dresden - each quarter.
Certainly, something could go wrong, but I wouldn't take a roadmap identical to Athlon's as a bad sign...
That said, I'd sure like to hear some news about Thoroughbred about now. |
